This is to examines the two fundamental societal response options against the climate change problem relating to low-lying islands. These policies are recognised nationally and internationally as adaptation and mitigation. According to the TAR (Third Assessment Report) definition, climate change adaptation is the “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001). Mitigation refers to the possible actions against the anthropogenic causes of climate change such as reducing global greenhouse emissions or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC 2001). The discussion will critically compare the two stated strategies and make suggestions on which one is appropriate and significant for low-lying islands concerning their social-economic costs. Examples to be used based on pragmatic observations carried out in a selected Pacific low lying coral atoll island named Kiribati which already affected severely by climate change. Before making further logical discussions, it is essential to firstly give an overview of the issue and identify the main causes of climate change as a global concern.
2. Overview of the issue:
2.1 General facts about climate change
Historically, climate change has been both promoted and constrained human activity. The only possible option for humans nowadays is to reduce the degree of which climate change can affect them through the means of available technologies and maybe protective infrastructures (Weart, 2008). However, human’s activity has affected the climate resulted in change of world temperature. Initially, the Swedish scientist Arrhenius’, 1896 first study showed how carbon dioxide affected climate. This was followed by the study of an English engineer G.S Calendar’s in 1938 who also asserted that the world was getting warmer caused by carbon dioxide. In 1965, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientist, Lorenz’, suggested in the Boulder conference that climate change could cause catastrophic surprises and this was supported by the IPCC in 1998 (Weart, 2008). Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic GHG (Green House Gas). The annual emissions of Carbon dioxide have been increased significantly by 80% from 21 gigatonnes (Gt) in 1970 to 38% gigatonnes in 2004. From this huge increase, 77% was accounted for by anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004. This confirms the idea that humans are the major cause of climate change.
2.2 Causes of climate change
Referring to Pidwirny (2007), the basic natural components that influence climate change include solar output, volcanic emissions, mountain building, continental drift, surface reflectivity, atmospheric reflectivity and atmospheric chemistry. He also mentioned that school of climatologists have discovered evidence that the main natural causes which influence climate change predominantly in the past years include: variations in the Earth’s orbital characteristics, carbon dioxide variations, volcanic eruptions and variations in solar outputs.
Apart from the natural causes, ecological economists are more interested in anthropogenic climate change or human activities that influence climate change. This change in climate based on the enhanced greenhouse effect or the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulted by human activities. Greenhouse effect is a natural process of heating the earth’s surface and atmosphere. Without it, life on this Earth would be impossible as the approximate surface temperature then would be -6 degree celsius rather than 15 degree celsius as a current actual global temperature. The greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, water vapour and methane absorb the majority of the outgoing infrared radiation creating more heat in the lower atmosphere. Consequently, since the beginning of the industrial revolution (i.e. about 1700 AD), these greenhouse gases have been doubled resulting in an increase of a global surface temperature by about 5 degree Celsius (Common & Stagl, 2005).
2.3 Climate change and Low-lying Islands
According to Hall (2008), climate change problem becomes a major issue in the low lying islands mostly in the Pacific region. Experts suggested that the tiny low-lying Pacific Island nations, which collectively account for only 0.0012 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are the most vulnerable and would be the first to feel the full burden of global warming. For a one meter sea level rise some island nations, such as Kiribati would be submerged. Already, two of the islands that make up Kiribati have disappeared under the waves, and in early 2005 others were inundated by a high king tides that washed away farmland, contaminated wells with saltwater, and flooded homes and a hospital. Furthermore, low small islands mostly in the Pacific have very low adaptive capacity in which adaptation costs are higher relative to their gross domestic product. Most of the infrastructures such as international airports, and roads are sited within 1.5 km making them vulnerable to sea level rising hazards. In the case of Kiribati, adaptation in particular may cost the economy approximately US$3.73 million that is 0.7% of GDP 2007 data (Hall 2008). Apart from the aforementioned challenging impacts of climate change, the potential ecological impacts include: water resources shortage and salinity, the coastal environment, agriculture and food security, biodiversity, human settlements and infrastructure, human health and economic and social-cultural resources (UNFCCC, 2005). Dealing with these climate change impacts lead to incentives of establishing effective policies and strategies.
3. Advocated policies against climate change
Mitigation and adaptation are the fundamental strategic policies. They are undertaken by the United Nation through the IPCC to address climate change problems. International climate change agencies’ attentions are more interested in mitigation policies since it has the ability to alleviate and reduce impacts on all climate-sensitive systems (Common & Stagl, 2008). Adaptation actions have limited ability to cope with all climate change impacts such as the Pacific coral atoll islands cannot substantially adapt to the significant increase in sea-level. The mitigation plan has certain effectiveness because it reduces the root cause of climate change whereas the effectiveness of productive adaptation to climate change often depend on projections and therefore subject to uncertainty. Finally, greenhouse gas emissions, for example, are easier to monitor quantitatively, while measuring the effectiveness of adaptation strategic plans are less straightforward. Even though this is the case, adaptation plans are become more likely to be adopted lately by the international community.
Adaptation is not a new concept. Everyday humans and other species in the ecosystem adapt to every change in the environment or other conditions since the human-gatherer phase. However, adapting to climate change conditions is challenging since it may need ongoing adaptation to keep up with the rapid changes and also these adaptation measures must be considered in political and economical decisions-makings. Previously in 1997, Kyoto Protocol put attention on mitigation plans but overtime, adaptation become more prioritized for the increasing frequency of climate change events throughout the world. Most Low Island agribusinesses are the ones who significantly focus on adaptation measures aiming to protect their business operations. A good example is the increasing incentives to have property and life insurances. This suggests that there is a direct significant relationship between adaptation plans to climate change and to the international agency and domestic economy. Projects provided by the local economy and the international organisation in the form of agriculture and forestry sectors to help communities and ecosystems adapt may also fight land degradation and reduce GHG emissions (Bruce et al 1995). Overall, the paper suggests that adaptation is suitable and more appropriate in the case of low-lying islands for immediate physical protection from current disasters but mitigation is essential for long term benefits.
4. Ecological economics perspectives
According to the recent top climate economist, Sir Nicholas Stern, the total cost of inaction against climate change can reach four trillion at the end of the century. Stern calls for a global investment of about 1% per year of global GDP over the next fifty years. "Economically speaking, mitigation - taking strong action to reduce emissions - is a very good deal," (Pearce 2006). He also stated that when deciding the appropriate level of carbon emissions, it is necessary to achieve the point where abatement marginal social costs carbon is equal to marginal cost of abatement. To do this, it is indispensable to work with social cost which is the summation of private cost and external cost of each strategy. Unfortunately, actual or specific data can only be available for private costs only since external costs are costs associated with third parties affected by a particular activity which are difficult to be obtained (Kundzewicz et al, 2007). For example, emissions of pollution from a power station may affect the health of people in its surrounding area but this effect is not considered and there is no market value associated with it. This situation is known as externality and the cost imposed called external cost. The graph below explains more clearly this relationship of these cost concepts and graphically represents the external and private costs of reducing fossil fuel as a good example of mitigation reduction strategy for global warming.
The market equilibrium for energy occurs where marginal private costs (MPC) equal marginal private benefit (MPB) creating a clearing price of P0 and consumption of Q0. Because of the externalities, the marginal private costs shifted upward to set a new curve, marginal social costs. The new equilibrium price will be increase to P1 and equilibrium consumption or quantity will be reducing to Q1. This specific example underlies the fact that the burning of fossil fuels is associated with external costs, of which global warming is one. As greenhouse gases are declined by reducing the use of fossil fuel, the social costs of global warming are reduced but the other direct external costs associated with the use of that energy include damage to health, forests, ecosystems, etc are reduced as well.
With reference to Barker et al (2007), another important spill over effect of mitigation is through its effect on world fossil fuel prices. When a particular country reduces its demand for fossil fuel as to comply with mitigation policy, the world demand for fossil fuel also fall and put more pressure on prices. Depending on fossil fuel producers’ response, oil, gas or coal prices may fall leading to lower revenue for producers and lower costs of imports.
Water is another major ecological and economical concern deals with climate change. Most small islands have very limited water supply and storage. Low atoll islands have limited water sources for the fact that they don’t have surface water resource and thus depend on rainfall and underground water as a main source. In summer periods, there is an excess demand for water since rainfall is insufficient (Kundzewicz et al, 2007). By approximation, a 10% reduction in average rainfall by 2050 would lead to a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on the main island, Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. This reduction in water along with rise in sea level would constitute this threat (UNFCC, 2005). With water resource management, there is a conflict between adaptation and mitigation strategies (Kundzewicz et al, 2007). A basic mitigation strategy is to shift energy sources from high emission electric generators to low greenhouse-gas emission energy sources such as hydropower. However, regions which use hydropower sources and also rely on water, there would be competition for water especially if irrigation is a feasible strategy due with climate-change effects on agriculture while a demand for cooling water by the power sector is also significant. This confirms the importance of efficient water-management such as adaptation strategies to achieve optimal allocation of this scarce resources (e.g. water) and economic investments to foster sustainable development.
In conclusion, climate change is a global concern and therefore need a global attention. Mitigation and adaptation strategies are the effective and available options for such concerns undertook internationally by the UN through various parties. The international community need to be very conscious in selecting which one to adopt and implement significantly or which one to be efficient and relevant to low coral islands. Pacific low island countries have been affected severely with those impacts driven citizens to extremely disasters and loss of identity. Economic costs analysis is also crucial to be considered in making those decisions as to quantify and give generalisations about the implementation costs and benefits involved with adaptation and mitigation policies. Adaptation costs are high for low-lying islands taking up a portion of their GDP and mitigation involves both external costs and benefits to the society. This take into account the marginal social cost and benefits analysis which is essential for minimizing costs and maximising benefits associated with the policy enacted. Lastly, sea level rising is also the main concern for water resource in low-lying islands in terms of water salinity and shortage and there are still rooms for efficient allocation of water managements. It may be useful to consider that for immediate needs, adaptation policy is necessary while mitigation policy significant for future effect of climate change. Finally, if the major carbon emitting countries around the world together with vulnerable nations make passionate commitment to act together in mitigating climate change, there will be more chances for low-lying island to adapt and reduce the visible impacts of climate change.
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